Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd51b…9ec7 other 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 22% −$17
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage127d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $346 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $317 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $340 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $348 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $472 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $303 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $416 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $335 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 26m
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 6h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 8h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 14h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 15h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 21h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 22h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 25h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 27h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 27h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 29h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 33h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 34h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 36h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1337 history records