Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd51a…7ea0 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$160 (-19%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$31
politics 23% −$30
sports 13% −$27
economics 5% −$41
crypto 5% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 33% -21.9%
≤30d 16 +7.4% -2.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 16 +7.4% -2.9% 38% 38% -13.7%
all 22 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 27% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 27% -28.0%
10% -32.2% 27% -34.9%
15% -38.8% 27% -41.2%
20% -44.8% 23% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$30 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage428d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $58 +$30 +52%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$12 -83%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$28 +48%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $170 −$84 -49%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 −$54 -87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$61 +180%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$56 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $21 +$53 +260%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 21 $40 −$40 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Apr 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 22 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the next Pope be Black? Apr 22 $61 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $87 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $86 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $93 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $8 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $62 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $34 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $58 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $77 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 96¢ $74 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 26¢ $21 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes $40 153d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 271d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 271d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 427d
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 427d
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 427d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY Yes $40 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records