Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd519…932c crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$345,869 (+468%) realized +$346,050 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 118L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$912per market
Trades / day130.0pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$18,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$35,976
world 23% +$27,184
other 19% −$2,728
sports 7% +$196
economics 3% +$246
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -93.1% -93.8% 3% 3% -84.4%
≤30d 125 -31.9% -38.4% 6% 6% -74.5%
≤90d 125 -31.9% -38.4% 6% 6% -74.5%
all 125 -31.9% -38.4% 6% 6% -74.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.4% 6% -74.5%
10% -44.3% 6% -76.9%
15% ← realistic here -49.7% 6% -79.1%
20% -54.6% 6% -81.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$1,149) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +37% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
42.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,711 vs −$846 · ×6.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$18,803
Realized+$346,050
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions19
Markets (closed)125 / 81
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$912
Trades / day130.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 60¢ 92¢ $3,000 $4,575 +$1,575 (+52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4,944 $4,472 −$472 (-10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2,111 $2,333 +$222 (+11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2,392 $2,177 −$215 (-9%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,178 $1,375 +$196 (+17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $780 $856 +$76 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $400 $783 +$383 (+96%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $703 $753 +$50 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 7¢ 4¢ $690 $365 −$325 (-47%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $500 $292 −$208 (-42%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $195 +$15 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $103 $119 +$16 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $1,500 $14 −$1,486 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $821 −$821 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $878 −$878 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $2,157 −$2,157 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? Jun 15 $375 −$375 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Jun 15 $795 −$795 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $493 −$493 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? Jun 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $644 −$644 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $1,615 −$1,615 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? Jun 15 $333 −$333 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 15 $926 −$926 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $927 −$927 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $333 −$333 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 15 $750 −$750 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 15 $4,499 −$4,499 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $2,078 −$2,078 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 15 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $592 −$592 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Jun 15 $2,860 −$2,860 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 15 $1,595 −$1,595 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14? Jun 15 $545 −$545 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 0m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 16m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $6 53m
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $178 54m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $635 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 1h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,803.15 · official $18,829.80 (match) · 3500 history records