Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

D5 0xd516…30c4 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+8.9%	-1.5%	67%	67%	+11.1%
≤30d	3	+8.9%	-1.5%	67%	67%	+11.1%
≤90d	3	+8.9%	-1.5%	67%	67%	+11.1%
all	3	+8.9%	-1.5%	67%	67%	+11.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.5%	67%	+11.1%
10%	-10.9%	67%	+0.5%
15%	-19.5%	67%	-9.2%
20%	-27.4%	67%	-18.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	73¢	74¢	$27	$27	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$18	+$10	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 28	$10	−$9	-92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$11	+$7	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$28	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$10	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$18	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	56¢	$11	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.18 · official $27.18 (match) · 6 history records