Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd514…2456 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$348 (-34%) realized −$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days+$59
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$122
other 25% −$48
weather 23% −$43
politics 14% −$136
sports 8% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 50% -22.6%
≤30d 16 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 38% -27.8%
≤90d 16 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 38% -27.8%
all 18 -26.3% -33.3% 44% 33% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 33% -37.8%
10% -39.7% 28% -43.8%
15% -45.5% 28% -49.2%
20% -50.8% 17% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$53 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage320d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$39 +150%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$62 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$39 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$12 +49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $60 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$57 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -95%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 20 $142 −$136 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 8d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 8d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 80¢ $61 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 16¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 17d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 18d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 21d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $40 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records