Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd514…bbdf weather 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-3%) realized −$648 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%141W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day100.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$408
7 days−$587
14 days−$653
30 days−$1,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$467
weather 46% −$684
other 3% +$13
finance 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -17.0% -24.9% 19% 11% -15.4%
≤30d 452 -16.6% -24.5% 27% 18% -14.3%
≤90d 488 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 20% -14.1%
all 488 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 20% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 20% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 15% -22.4%
15% -36.6% 11% -29.9%
20% -42.8% 8% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses141 / 347
Open positions27
Markets (closed)488 / 515
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day100.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $360 $393 +$34 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 76¢ 100¢ $191 $249 +$58 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $156 $169 +$13 (+8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 27? No 55¢ 50¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 73¢ 100¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? No 79¢ 76¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 27? No 49¢ 36¢ $42 $31 −$12 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? No 48¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? No 60¢ 27¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 74¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? No 52¢ 18¢ $33 $11 −$21 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? No 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? No 51¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? No 60¢ 61¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? No 55¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? No 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $93 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $79 −$13 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $198 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 27 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $96 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $49 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $29 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $84 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $30 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $23 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $193 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 −$15 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 26 $25 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 26 $110 −$20 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $497 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $73 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $39 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $37 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 −$13 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $52 −$10 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 41¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 41¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 51¢ $26 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 44¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 44¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 59¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 27m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 49¢ $24 28m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 49¢ $24 30m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 48¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 48¢ $24 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $33 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 40m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $38 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 59¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 78¢ $39 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 79¢ $40 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 58¢ $4 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,108.76 · official $1,108.31 (match) · 3500 history records