Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd50e…e2d5 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$3
politics 26% −$1
other 25% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 0% -10.3%
all 32 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage328d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $58 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $28 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $26 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $18 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.24 (match) · 94 history records