Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd50e…4ba0 sports 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-15%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$6
other 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.0% -16.7% 86% 14% -21.9%
≤30d 8 -19.5% -27.1% 75% 12% -23.8%
≤90d 8 -19.5% -27.1% 75% 12% -23.8%
all 8 -19.5% -27.1% 75% 12% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 12% -23.8%
10% -34.1% 0% -31.1%
15% -40.5% 0% -37.8%
20% -46.3% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +10%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 71¢ $7 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 98¢ $7 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 5d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Laura Samson 100¢ $6 6d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Laura Samson 97¢ $6 6d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik SELL Elizabeth Mandlik 100¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tallon Griekspoor 100¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 82¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 95¢ $5 6d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records