Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd50d…0922 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$205 (-7%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$141
sports 4% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 42% -3.0%
≤30d 12 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 42% -3.0%
≤90d 12 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 42% -3.0%
all 12 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 42% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 42% -3.0%
10% -33.3% 17% -12.3%
15% -39.8% 17% -20.7%
20% -45.7% 17% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$25 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $669 +$99 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $968 +$9 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$61 -60%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$95 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,004 +$143 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $38 +$8 +20%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $27 +$19 +70%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $50 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $768 27m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $669 58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $978 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $197 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 99¢ $968 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,147 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $50 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 25¢ $50 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records