Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd50c…3360 weather 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+3%) realized +$514 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%112W / 273L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day56.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$361
14 days−$280
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -49.7% -54.5% 22% 10% -24.9%
≤30d 205 -31.3% -37.9% 31% 15% -10.5%
≤90d 385 -18.0% -25.8% 29% 20% -6.8%
all 385 -18.0% -25.8% 29% 20% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 20% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 16% -15.8%
15% -39.4% 14% -23.9%
20% -45.3% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$14 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses112 / 273
Open positions6
Markets (closed)385 / 357
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? No 84¢ 76¢ $85 $77 −$9 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 23? No 96¢ 95¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? No 78¢ 78¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? No 71¢ 72¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Jun 22 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 17? Jun 22 $0 −$1 -268%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 19? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 22? Jun 22 $1 −$2 -162%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 18? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 17? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 18? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 21? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 15? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 1 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 17? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 16? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 18? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $158 −$145 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $41 +$15 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $84 −$14 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 +$57 +360%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $1 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$27 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 40m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 72¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 78¢ $67 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 51¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $13 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $39 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $61 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $79 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.59 · official $292.40 (match) · 3500 history records