Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D5 0xd50b…d882 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$8 · open −$103

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$230per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$883now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$117

7 days−$117

14 days−$239

30 days−$334

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+26.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-42.2%	-47.7%	0%	0%	-54.0%
≤30d	6	-40.7%	-46.3%	0%	0%	-61.3%
≤90d	14	+40.0%	+26.6%	29%	29%	-10.7%
all	14	+40.0%	+26.6%	29%	29%	-10.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.6%	29%	-10.7%
10%	+14.5%	14%	-19.3%
15%	+3.4%	14%	-27.1%
20%	-6.7%	14%	-34.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +113% → late -33% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$80 vs −$36 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.9 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage

Net worth$883

Realized−$8

Unrealized−$103

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage49d

Avg bet$230

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$876	$883	+$7 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$111	$1	−$110 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$77	−$17	-22%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Jun 26	$161	−$100	-62%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$124	−$122	-99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Jun 11	$187	−$93	-50%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	May 30	$17	−$1	-8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	May 30	$21	$0	-2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	May 13	$883	+$110	+12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	May 11	$1,148	+$130	+11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	May 10	$20	+$13	+64%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	May 10	$6	+$69	+1115%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	May 10	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?	May 10	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF?	May 10	$6	−$6	-97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	May 10	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$112	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$120	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$60	1h
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$61	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$333	3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$124	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$93	15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$93	15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$36	27d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$16	27d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	9¢	$20	27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$182	27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$77	27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	87¢	$993	43d
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	BUY Yes	10¢	$116	44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	79¢	$790	46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$1,278	46d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$17	46d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	46d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	46d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	SELL Yes	100¢	$75	46d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	8¢	$6	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	9¢	$6	46d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	46d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.19 · official $883.19 (match) · 80 history records