Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D5 0xd50b…2f40 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$48 (-4%) realized −$146 · open +$98

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$148per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-10.5%	-19.0%	57%	57%	+19.1%
≤30d	7	-10.5%	-19.0%	57%	57%	+19.1%
≤90d	7	-10.5%	-19.0%	57%	57%	+19.1%
all	7	-10.5%	-19.0%	57%	57%	+19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.0%	57%	+19.1%
10%	-26.8%	57%	+7.7%
15%	-33.9%	43%	-2.7%
20%	-40.3%	43%	-12.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$32 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$483

Realized−$146

Unrealized+$98

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$148

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego	Ben Shelton	79¢	99¢	$385	$483	+$98 (+26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 17	$308	+$79	+26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$177	+$131	+74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$107	+$70	+65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$76	−$75	-99%
Belgium to win the second half?	Jun 15	$108	+$67	+62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego	BUY Ben Shelton	79¢	$387	1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	100¢	$387	1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	79¢	$308	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	57¢	$177	15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	60¢	$107	21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$76	40h
Belgium to win the second half?	SELL Yes	100¢	$175	40h
Belgium to win the second half?	BUY Yes	61¢	$108	41h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	61¢	$11	45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$9	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.72 · official $479.56 (match) · 14 history records