Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd504…b6e2 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate27%23W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$19
14 days+$22
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$12
other 20% −$3
sports 17% −$3
politics 11% −$6
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 9% -8.3%
≤30d 25 -4.5% -13.6% 40% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 48 -4.7% -13.8% 35% 8% -9.5%
all 85 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses23 / 62
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage288d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $130 +$21 +16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $272 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $201 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $243 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $213 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $111 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $59 +$7 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $17 −$7 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $107 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $227 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $12 −$2 -13%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $63 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $107 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $117 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $107 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $162 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $154 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $147 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 14 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $14 −$10 -72%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $84 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $84 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $108 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $108 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $108 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $108 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $61 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $111 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records