Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd503…2dfb other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$8
sports 27% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 42% -12.0%
≤30d 36 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 42% -12.0%
≤90d 36 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 42% -12.0%
all 36 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -12.0%
10% -25.9% 39% -20.4%
15% -33.0% 33% -28.1%
20% -39.6% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $31 −$2 -7%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 +$7 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $65 −$52 -80%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 +$3 +140%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 +$19 +76%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$26 +86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$12 -76%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$16 +32%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals Jun 24 $3 −$2 -58%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$6 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$6 +52%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 −$24 -70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$69 +234%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$27 +76%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +20%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes $4 9h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes $10 9h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $12 28h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $13 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 30h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes $10 33h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes $10 33h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.08 · official $20.08 (match) · 82 history records