trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 8% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 8% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 23 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 35% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 79¢ | 80¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 03 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 02 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 31 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 30 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $63 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 29 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 28 | $12 | −$1 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? | Mar 24 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? | Mar 23 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | +0% |