Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd500…2933 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$13
politics 30% −$11
sports 13% −$59
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 147 -4.3% -13.4% 8% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.7% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage131d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $148 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 12 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $321 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $399 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $363 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 20h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $151 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $151 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $163 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $163 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 24d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 414 history records