Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4fe…dbf8 crypto 333 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,033 (+9%) realized +$2,085 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%128W / 302L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day128.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,615
7 days−$1,620
14 days−$2,623
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,750
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -70.8% -73.6% 15% 15% -83.7%
≤30d 430 -28.9% -35.7% 30% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 430 -28.9% -35.7% 30% 30% -8.4%
all 430 -28.9% -35.7% 30% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 30% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 30% -17.1%
15% -47.4% 30% -25.1%
20% -52.6% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$42 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$2,085
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses128 / 302
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)430 / 333
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day128.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 51¢ 74¢ $98 $144 +$45 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $97 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.77 · official $154.77 (match) · 3500 history records