Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4fd…b0ab crypto 510 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-0%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate89%456W / 54L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$175
14 days+$18
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +5.6% -4.5% 84% 82% -4.6%
≤30d 510 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 41% -10.1%
≤90d 510 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 41% -10.1%
all 510 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 41% -10.1%
10% -17.2% 21% -18.7%
15% -25.2% 7% -26.6%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$59 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses456 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)510 / 510
History coverage26d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 510 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 966 history records