Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd4fc…6b57 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$62 (+59%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip
Net edge+92%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+99.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +120.6% +99.6% 67% 67% +65.0%
≤30d 3 +120.6% +99.6% 67% 67% +65.0%
≤90d 3 +120.6% +99.6% 67% 67% +65.0%
all 3 +120.6% +99.6% 67% 67% +65.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +99.6% 67% +65.0%
10% +80.5% 67% +49.2%
15% +63.1% 67% +34.8%
20% +47.1% 33% +21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$1 · ×42.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×84.65 per $1 lost it wins $84.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $93 +$45 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$42 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records