Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D4 0xd4fc…ec59 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$89 (+23%) realized +$90 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)+17.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+29.3%	+17.0%	35%	35%	+15.9%
≤30d	17	+29.3%	+17.0%	35%	35%	+15.9%
≤90d	17	+29.3%	+17.0%	35%	35%	+15.9%
all	17	+29.3%	+17.0%	35%	35%	+15.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.0%	35%	+15.9%
10%	+5.8%	35%	+4.8%
15%	-4.4%	24%	-5.3%
20%	-13.8%	24%	-14.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +41% → late +19% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$12 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$79

Realized+$90

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage6d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$31	+$90	+291%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$15	+$4	+26%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$10	−$5	-49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$13	−$13	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$25	+$16	+62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	+$24	+237%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$55	−$53	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$42	+$14	+32%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Jun 24	$4	−$1	-12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$20	−$10	-50%
Canada leading at halftime?	Jun 24	$20	−$1	-4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	+$73	+711%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$81	1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$120	37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	79¢	$15	41h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$5	41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$13	41h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$31	41h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$25	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$25	3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	76¢	$34	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$5	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$55	4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$2	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$42	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	4d
Canada leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	24¢	$20	4d
Canada leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$9	5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.29 · official $79.29 (match) · 33 history records