Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4fc…c089 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% +$2
other 25% $0
sports 16% $0
politics 13% $0
tech 12% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 17% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 17% 0% -8.9%
all 36 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage299d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 10 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 12m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $40 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $33 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $43 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $44 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $43 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $43 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $2 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $30 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $7 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $39 28d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $34 280d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $34 281d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $34 282d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $34 282d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $32 282d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $5 282d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $5 283d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $5 283d
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $5 283d
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September SELL No 99¢ $5 283d
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September BUY No 100¢ $5 284d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $5 284d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 98¢ $5 284d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records