Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4fa…dcc8 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$28,490 (+367%) realized +$129 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day3474.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 8% -8.0%
≤30d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 8% -8.0%
all 25 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3474.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 8% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
133.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day3474.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 56¢ 57¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 41¢ 42¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $236 −$17 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $269 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $182 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $253 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $538 +$51 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $366 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $240 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $289 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$13 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $229 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $213 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $242 +$27 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $541 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $424 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $353 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $389 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $359 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $344 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $618 +$26 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $618 −$12 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.48 · official $64.28 (match) · 3500 history records