Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4fa…2942 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.7% -24.7% 32% 32% -19.8%
≤30d 22 -16.7% -24.7% 32% 32% -19.8%
≤90d 22 -16.7% -24.7% 32% 32% -19.8%
all 25 -11.5% -19.9% 32% 32% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 32% -16.1%
10% -27.6% 32% -24.2%
15% -34.6% 32% -31.5%
20% -41.0% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage149d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 18 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 18 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 18 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records