Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd4f9…b0d3 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$201 (-8%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate81%58W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$185
other 3% −$20
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 25% 25% -4.0%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 25% 25% -4.0%
≤90d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 25% 25% -4.0%
all 72 -10.6% -19.1% 81% 10% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 10% -16.8%
10% -26.8% 7% -24.8%
15% -33.9% 4% -32.0%
20% -40.4% 3% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses58 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage233d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$13 +84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $101 −$97 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $125 −$124 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $114 +$11 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $191 +$24 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $89 $0 +0%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? Jan 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 2? Jan 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 23? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 22? Dec 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 21? Dec 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 19? Dec 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Dec 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 17? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 30? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 6? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 11? Dec 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $10 −$3 -26%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 27 $1 +$1 +78%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 27 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 20? Nov 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $44 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? SELL No 28¢ $2 4d
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $4 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $125 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? SELL No 94¢ $125 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? BUY No 86¢ $114 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY No 89¢ $101 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? SELL No 69¢ $32 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? SELL No 69¢ $69 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY No 61¢ $90 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? SELL No 56¢ $15 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? BUY No 38¢ $10 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? SELL No 52¢ $14 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? BUY No 36¢ $10 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 BUY Yes 89¢ $10 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records