trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 30% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 30% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 23 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 52% | 4% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 4% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 4% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 52¢ | $26 | $26 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 22¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-61%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 03 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $79 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $39 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 31 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 28 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $33 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 04 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | May 22 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 21 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $21 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? | Apr 05 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 02 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Apr 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |