Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4f9…f4ad sports 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,648 (-2%) realized −$3,310 · open −$1,338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%200W / 174L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1,775est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$4,473
other 13% −$3,253
crypto 0% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 44% -51.4%
≤30d 53 -7.0% -15.8% 51% 51% -36.1%
≤90d 328 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 52% -12.7%
all 374 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 53% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 53% -12.2%
10% -20.9% 52% -20.6%
15% -28.5% 47% -28.3%
20% -35.5% 33% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$408 vs −$504 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3,434
Realized−$3,310
Unrealized−$1,338
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses200 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,775
Open positions1
Markets (closed)374 / 375
History coverage98d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $4,772 $3,434 −$1,338 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $357 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $505 +$211 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $509 +$773 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $505 +$276 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,153 −$2,153 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 15 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $3,621 −$3,621 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $5,557 −$5,557 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 15 $1,977 −$1,977 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $1,833 −$1,833 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,046 −$1,030 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $450 +$578 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$473 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $509 +$773 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $507 +$396 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $510 +$1,015 +199%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,008 +$346 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $305 +$411 +135%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $458 +$667 +146%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,568 +$819 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,000 +$568 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,005 −$992 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $454 −$445 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $304 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1,010 +$528 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 May 25 $1,006 +$244 +24%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 25 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $306 +$505 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $508 +$565 +111%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,737 +$2,145 +124%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $770 +$262 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $1,027 +$446 +43%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 May 22 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,812 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $357 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,010 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 70¢ $505 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $509 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1,016 41h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $505 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $1,015 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $450 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $408 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $507 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $509 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 55¢ $507 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $510 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $408 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $1,009 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $1,008 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $305 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $1,010 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $458 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $204 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $1,009 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 68¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $1,565 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,568 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,434.15 · official $3,434.15 (match) · 741 history records