Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4f9…f619
sports · 169 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$671,861 +127%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$662,036 · open +$9,825
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 17 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,099
7 days+$1,532
14 days+$6,087
30 days+$31,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 82¢ $5,702 $12,154 +$6,451 (+113%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $10,490 $10,744 +$254 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $7,402 $7,700 +$298 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 78¢ 82¢ $3,895 $4,122 +$227 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 72¢ $1,560 $2,900 +$1,340 (+86%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $983 $988 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $917 $968 +$52 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $880 $895 +$15 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 88¢ $280 $880 +$600 (+214%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 94¢ $330 $472 +$142 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 94¢ $305 $468 +$162 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 90¢ $220 $452 +$232 (+106%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 86¢ 89¢ $113 $117 +$4 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No 40¢ 76¢ $37 $69 +$33 (+90%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $34 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +163%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $10 +$13 +124%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $162 +$138 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $433 +$174 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,841 +$139 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $10 +$40 +388%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1,791 +$624 +35%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $63 −$63 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,302 +$433 +13%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $121 +$59 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $230 +$70 +30%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $203 +$47 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $362 +$10 +3%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $297 +$31 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $81 +$19 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $3 +$7 +203%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $18,061 +$2,428 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $29 +$71 +245%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $5,215 +$1,194 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $607 +$93 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $508 +$92 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $277 +$123 +44%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 30 $457 +$43 +10%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $160 +$54 +34%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $903 +$197 +22%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lautaro Midon May 28 $86 +$14 +16%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3,400 +$846 +25%
Jannik Sinner vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $744 −$744 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 21 $103 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $29 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $432 +$33 +8%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $830 +$170 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $85,378 +$24,629 +29%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5) May 16 $151 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $144 +$156 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $455 +$45 +10%
Jannik Sinner vs. Andrea Pellegrino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 12 $657 +$63 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$639
crypto 44% +$666,677
other 2% +$5,519
tech 2% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up $5 55m
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 3h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 85¢ $9 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $607 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $63 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $17 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $41 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $29 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $34 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $45 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $12 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $27 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +81.6% +64.3% 85% 77% +2.4%
≤30d 48 +33.9% +21.2% 83% 65% +11.9%
≤90d 159 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 55% +109.9%
all 159 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 55% +109.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 55% +109.9%
10% -6.6% 39% +89.8%
15% ← realistic here -15.6% 26% +71.5%
20% -23.9% 19% +54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,114.56 · official $43,114.56 (match) · 3500 history records