Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4f6…e2c8 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+6%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%34W / 21L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 60% -1.5%
≤30d 55 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 60% -1.5%
≤90d 55 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 60% -1.5%
all 55 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 60% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 60% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 56% -10.9%
15% -21.4% 42% -19.5%
20% -29.1% 25% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses34 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records