Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4ef…5ce1
crypto · 1051 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$202 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$223 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses586 / 463
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1049 / 1051
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day74.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1049 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$203
14 days−$138
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 77¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$214
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 56% -25.3%
≤30d 1049 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 55% -15.2%
≤90d 1049 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 55% -15.2%
all 1049 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 55% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 55% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 46% -23.3%
15% -26.7% 44% -30.7%
20% -33.9% 41% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.84 (match) · 1865 history records