Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd4eb…7ba3 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,468 (+13%) realized +$1,499 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,019
7 days+$100
14 days+$2,198
30 days+$1,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,743
sports 23% +$312
crypto 3% −$89
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.1% -11.4% 31% 31% -7.8%
≤30d 54 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% +9.6%
≤90d 54 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% +9.6%
all 54 +12.0% +1.3% 33% 33% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 33% +9.6%
10% -8.4% 33% -0.9%
15% -17.3% 33% -10.5%
20% -25.4% 31% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$99 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$1,499
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 71
History coverage23d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $199 $196 −$3 (-2%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Yes 14¢ 12¢ $133 $105 −$27 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hwang Heechan: 1+ goals Jun 25 $88 −$86 -98%
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists Jun 25 $216 −$211 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $42 +$176 +419%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $204 +$400 +196%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $326 −$20 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $22 −$1 -6%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 24 $136 −$134 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $204 −$199 -98%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $198 −$195 -98%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 23 $74 −$72 -98%
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists Jun 23 $143 −$140 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $180 +$116 +64%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $71 −$22 -31%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $145 +$236 +162%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $489 +$770 +158%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $343 +$645 +188%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $501 −$494 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $251 +$251 +100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $102 +$150 +147%
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Jun 21 $136 −$133 -98%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Junya Itō: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 +$172 +340%
Junya Itō: 1+ assists Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $94 −$92 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $205 +$239 +116%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $204 −$199 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $190 +$301 +158%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$212 +206%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$244 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a Jun 15 $132 +$322 +245%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 14 $295 −$22 -8%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $386 +$170 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $96 −$9 -10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $172 −$14 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $277 +$295 +106%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $188 −$14 -7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $82 +$204 +249%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 12 $92 −$7 -8%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $440 −$45 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $492 +$665 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $136 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $203 5h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Swede BUY 2¢ $10 12h
Hwang Heechan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $11 15h
Hwang Heechan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $77 15h
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $121 15h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL 98¢ $218 16h
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $95 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 16h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $102 16h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $51 16h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $51 16h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $603 16h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $204 17h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY 18¢ $42 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 31h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Son Heungmin: 1+ goals AND Matheus Cunha: BUY 7¢ $1 36h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $136 38h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $204 39h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $198 42h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $74 42h
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $143 44h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $153 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $296 46h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $180 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $382 2d
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.09 · official $310.91 · 151 history records