Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4e9…f6ca other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+21%) realized +$20 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$16
sports 11% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.1% -19.5% 40% 40% -37.0%
≤30d 5 -11.1% -19.5% 40% 40% -37.0%
≤90d 5 -11.1% -19.5% 40% 40% -37.0%
all 5 -11.1% -19.5% 40% 40% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 40% -37.0%
10% -27.2% 40% -43.0%
15% -34.3% 40% -48.5%
20% -40.7% 40% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$11 +171%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 62¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 12 history records