Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4e8…baac world 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+13%) realized +$109 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate68%80W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days+$84
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$17
politics 35% +$24
other 8% −$10
culture 7% −$8
crypto 4% +$27
sports 1% −$4
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.6% -19.1% 66% 25% -25.1%
≤30d 118 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 25% -8.7%
≤90d 118 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 25% -8.7%
all 118 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 25% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 25% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 15% -17.4%
15% -30.7% 12% -25.4%
20% -37.5% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses80 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions71
Markets (closed)118 / 189
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $49 $101 +$52 (+107%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $57 $71 +$14 (+25%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 88¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+112%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 93¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 39¢ 23¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-42%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $34 $2 −$32 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $12 +$14 +111%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $9 +$14 +153%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $25 +$19 +74%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 07 $2 +$7 +348%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 21m
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $1 54m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.93 · official $356.83 (match) · 931 history records