trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +18.0% | +6.8% | 50% | 50% | -41.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +75.4% | +58.7% | 50% | 50% | -15.1% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 28% | 28% | -22.4% |
| all | 18 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 28% | 28% | -22.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.6% | 28% | -22.4% |
| 10% | -20.0% | 28% | -29.9% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 28% | -36.6% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 28% | -42.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $114 | $92 | −$23 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 23 | $68 | −$36 | -54% |
| Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in | Jun 21 | $10 | +$9 | +90% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $10 | +$38 | +365% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | Jun 01 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? | May 21 | $10 | −$10 | -92% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18? | May 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18? | May 17 | $10 | −$6 | -54% |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 17? | May 16 | $8 | −$7 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17? | May 16 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? | May 16 | $10 | +$23 | +220% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? | May 16 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? | May 16 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 15? | May 16 | $10 | +$22 | +213% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15? | May 16 | $11 | +$22 | +198% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? | May 14 | $10 | −$3 | -27% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 15? | May 14 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |