Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D4 0xd4e2…7f83 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$11,095 (-26%) realized −$11,214 · open +$119

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +147% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip

Net edge+106%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2,047per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$181est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$3,150

7 days−$5,252

14 days−$11,706

30 days−$11,706

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)+123.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+270.2%	+235.0%	55%	36%	-49.1%
≤30d	19	+146.7%	+123.2%	47%	37%	-32.3%
≤90d	19	+146.7%	+123.2%	47%	37%	-32.3%
all	19	+146.7%	+123.2%	47%	37%	-32.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+123.2%	37%	-32.3%
10%	+101.8%	37%	-38.7%
15%	+82.3%	32%	-44.7%
20%	+64.5%	26%	-50.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +147% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,539) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -20% → late +297% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$988 vs −$2,060 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$219

Realized−$11,214

Unrealized+$119

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$181

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$2,047

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	15¢	64¢	$50	$215	+$165 (+330%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Yes	31¢	3¢	$50	$4	−$46 (-92%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$305	−$300	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$815	−$800	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$2,032	−$2,000	-98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$1,013	+$722	+71%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$1,011	+$585	+58%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$71	+$5	+7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,739	−$5,700	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$3,539	+$2,011	+57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$226	+$269	+119%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$412	+$6	+1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,404	+$1,112	+46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1,912	+$486	+25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5,054	−$3,860	-76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2,052	−$405	-20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3,044	−$3,000	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4,041	−$2,380	-59%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5,066	+$3,698	+73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4,107	−$2,105	-51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$305	4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	24h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	36¢	$815	26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$2,032	31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,722	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,596	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$1,011	3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$72	6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$5,739	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5,550	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$3,539	6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$477	6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$394	6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$205	6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$206	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$3,516	7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,404	7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$2,398	7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	79¢	$805	7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	78¢	$1,107	7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1,083	7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	21¢	$29	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.33 · official $201.42 · 44 history records