Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4e1…0e7b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-9%) realized −$139 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$40
other 32% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% +2.6%
≤30d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% +2.6%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% +2.6%
all 15 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 40% +2.6%
10% -16.9% 40% -7.2%
15% -24.9% 40% -16.2%
20% -32.2% 40% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$61 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 +$22 +71%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$33 -81%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$46 -45%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 Jun 17 $203 +$152 +75%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $71 +$223 +313%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$87 +170%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$62 +61%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $102 +$162 +159%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $151 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 47m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic BUY 26¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $56 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 41h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 41h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $101 42h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 44¢ $58 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 41¢ $81 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 56¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $122 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $151 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 37¢ $127 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 38¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.79 · official $213.79 · 40 history records