Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4da…3175 sports 625 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66,528 (-4%) realized −$36,298 · open −$30,230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%323W / 295L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,396per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$6,883est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$28,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$63,749
other 4% −$27,332
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 44% -16.7%
≤30d 82 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 45% -9.6%
≤90d 295 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 50% +3.4%
all 618 +4.7% -5.3% 52% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 50% -5.5%
10% -14.4% 47% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 45% -22.8%
20% -30.2% 42% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,075) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,944 vs −$1,903 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$28,050
Realized−$36,298
Unrealized−$30,230
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses323 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$6,883
Open positions7
Markets (closed)618 / 625
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$2,396
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 36¢ $33,869 $23,640 −$10,229 (-30%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 30¢ $7,266 $4,104 −$3,162 (-44%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 21¢ 12¢ $400 $219 −$181 (-45%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 21¢ $58 $40 −$17 (-30%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 6¢ 3¢ $61 $30 −$32 (-52%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $16,624 $15 −$16,609 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 43¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $6,830 +$4,177 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6,128 −$6,110 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $12,491 +$1,867 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $534 +$1,073 +201%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20,874 +$19,573 +94%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $596 +$840 +141%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $150 +$134 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 15 $15 +$16 +108%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $6,012 −$6,012 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $731 −$731 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,786 +$3,018 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,454 −$3,454 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,452 −$5,376 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8,418 −$8,417 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,761 −$1,721 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $700 +$758 +108%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $594 +$1,263 +212%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $3,027 +$478 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $298 +$368 +124%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $6,490 −$6,490 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $693 +$347 +50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $602 +$914 +152%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $1,696 +$917 +54%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 13 $338 +$82 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2,721 +$3,100 +114%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $218 −$218 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $331 −$331 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $982 −$982 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 13 $2,745 −$2,745 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1,268 +$1,845 +146%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1,033 +$787 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $223 −$218 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $11 +$11 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $741 +$844 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 +$102 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $3,200 7m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 40m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,757 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $204 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $127 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,105 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $573 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $219 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,049.90 · official $27,378.93 · 3500 history records