Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4d4…5f46 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%42W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses42 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage500d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $29 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5,879 −$6 -0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $8 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy? Mar 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Mar 15 $59 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 29d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 60d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $53 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $23 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $37 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $55 211d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $30 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $46 302d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 332d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $29 333d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 364d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 366d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 392d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,874 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.11 · official $59.11 (match) · 115 history records