Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4ce…41ac
sports · 460 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$113
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses296 / 155
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions9
Markets (closed)451 / 460
Avg bet$11
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 451 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$95
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 59¢ 81¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Caty McNally 70¢ 87¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 56¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Vekic 69¢ 62¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 75¢ 66¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 74¢ 40¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 66¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 78¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Ekaterina Alexandrova 78¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jeline Vandromme 53¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Under 66¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Martin Landaluce 69¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? No 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? No 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Arthur Rinderknech 77¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 59¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Michele Ribecai 73¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 +$6 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$5 +41%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $13 +$6 +46%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $14 +$10 +75%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $14 +$6 +46%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $13 +$3 +22%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $14 −$13 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 +$9 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 −$13 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $13 +$5 +38%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Cilic Jun 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $12 +$4 +34%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 11 $14 −$13 -99%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $13 +$3 +22%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $13 +$4 +28%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Set 1 Winner: Ruse vs Mertens Jun 11 $14 +$4 +33%
Set 1 Winner: Rincon vs Blanch Jun 11 $13 +$8 +60%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $13 +$8 +58%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $13 +$7 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 11 $14 +$2 +15%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $13 +$8 +63%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $14 +$7 +48%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $13 +$3 +26%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $13 +$8 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $13 +$6 +45%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $14 +$7 +53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $13 +$6 +45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $13 +$4 +33%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $14 +$7 +50%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $14 −$13 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $13 +$5 +40%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $14 +$6 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$45
other 4% −$38
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $13 3h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $19 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 98¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $13 6h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 99¢ $18 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $13 7h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 67¢ $13 7h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream SELL New York Liberty 97¢ $15 7h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 89¢ $14 7h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $0 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $3 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $1 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $2 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $5 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $3 10h
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini SELL Federico Coria 99¢ $20 10h
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Federico Coria 67¢ $14 11h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $13 12h
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 77¢ $13 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $13 13h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 63¢ $14 13h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 74¢ $13 15h
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 78¢ $14 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $23 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $14 17h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 69¢ $13 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $14 18h
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 99¢ $18 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 +5.3% -4.8% 68% 66% -11.9%
≤30d 451 +4.4% -5.6% 66% 64% -9.3%
≤90d 451 +4.4% -5.6% 66% 64% -9.3%
all 451 +4.4% -5.6% 66% 64% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 64% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 54% -18.0%
15% -22.9% 42% -25.9%
20% -30.4% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.36 · official $113.20 (match) · 879 history records