Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4cb…5592 politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$1
other 23% +$1
sports 8% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
all 26 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage134d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 27 $112 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $112 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $112 19h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 39d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 39d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 43d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $113 44d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 48d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 48d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 52d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $113 53d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 70d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 70d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 70d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 74d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 74d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 74d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $114 78d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $113 78d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 79d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records