Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4c6…502c sports 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,197 (+4%) realized +$4,205 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%86W / 116L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1,058est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 159d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,004
crypto 12% −$2,875
other 10% −$571
politics 2% −$574
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -14.8% -22.9% 39% 37% +12.0%
≤30d 164 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 38% -9.6%
≤90d 202 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 39% -11.2%
all 202 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 39% -11.2%
10% -31.5% 37% -19.7%
15% -38.1% 33% -27.5%
20% -44.2% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$260 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized+$4,205
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses86 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,058
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage159d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 54¢ $430 $422 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $510 +$421 +83%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $689 +$820 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Jun 16 $733 −$42 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $295 +$429 +145%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $634 +$667 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $416 +$580 +139%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $437 +$477 +109%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $999 −$985 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $503 −$496 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $315 −$310 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$219 +72%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $198 −$195 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $978 +$386 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $619 +$546 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $510 +$304 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $219 +$213 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,247 +$3,508 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5,245 −$90 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $493 +$561 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $333 −$121 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $209 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$76 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$293 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $223 +$153 +69%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $546 −$50 -9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $224 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $210 +$161 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$179 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $313 −$106 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $235 −$125 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $415 −$200 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$25 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $417 −$300 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $415 −$200 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $234 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $310 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $209 +$72 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $436 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $510 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,509 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $689 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will SELL 41¢ $691 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will BUY 42¢ $733 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $725 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $295 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $634 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $996 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $416 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $914 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $437 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $999 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $503 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $315 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $523 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $304 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $198 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,365 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $978 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,165 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $814 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $510 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $294 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $122 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $433 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $219 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.18 · official $422.18 (match) · 455 history records