Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4c5…b9a3 world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%12W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,658per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$24
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$52
tech 15% +$6
economics 8% +$11
crypto 8% +$19
politics 5% −$3
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,944
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses12 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,658
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,166 $1,164 −$3 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $412 $413 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $367 $368 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $1,944 +$2 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $1,940 +$4 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,938 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,927 +$11 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,923 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,921 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,919 +$2 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,914 +$6 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,893 +$19 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,883 +$11 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,860 +$23 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,859 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $622 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $544 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $353 20h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $57 34h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $45 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $55 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $55 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $46 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,944 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,940 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,938 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1,927 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 100¢ $1,923 13d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,921 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $920 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 17d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,914 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,893 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,944.20 · official $1,944.78 (match) · 46 history records