Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd4c3…60d9 sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,654 (-1%) realized −$5,276 · open −$378
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%233W / 223L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$849per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$2,389est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 173d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$16,233
other 38% +$4,176
crypto 4% −$2,896
politics 3% +$1,706
world 0% −$138
economics 0% −$83
finance 0% +$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 59% 59% -2.8%
≤30d 91 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 54% -21.4%
≤90d 230 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 53% -11.3%
all 456 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 47% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 47% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -20.6%
15% -29.8% 33% -28.3%
20% -36.7% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$848) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$448 vs −$525 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$5,110
Realized−$5,276
Unrealized−$378
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses233 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,389
Open positions11
Markets (closed)456 / 467
History coverage173d
Avg bet$849
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $814 $825 +$11 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $684 $678 −$6 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $616 $610 −$6 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $540 $545 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $520 $516 −$4 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $444 $435 −$9 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $420 $429 +$9 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $420 $423 +$3 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $414 $414 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $238 $234 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 63¢ $378 $0 −$378 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $214 +$93 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $809 −$453 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $975 +$411 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $154 +$621 +404%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $783 +$214 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $696 +$304 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $470 −$27 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,477 +$453 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $632 −$5 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $518 +$112 +22%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $622 +$423 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $495 −$5 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1,297 −$1,290 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $494 +$198 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $549 −$544 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $811 +$279 +34%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $752 +$448 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $90 −$88 -97%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1,026 +$513 +50%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $533 −$521 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $449 −$438 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 04 $408 −$400 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $1,907 −$1,882 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $4,049 −$1,344 -33%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 03 $1,784 +$943 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,426 +$354 +25%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $7,371 −$7,285 -99%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $2,338 +$991 +42%
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $11 +$8 +78%
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $606 +$303 +50%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $5,156 −$5,086 -99%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $2,865 −$2,832 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $886 −$870 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1,880 −$1,861 -99%
Cobolli vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $1,222 +$1,302 +106%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $1,482 −$1,454 -98%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $213 −$211 -99%
Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $1,570 +$782 +50%
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $1,598 +$947 +59%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1,106 +$549 +50%
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 01 $928 +$900 +97%
Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $783 +$762 +97%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $2,542 +$1,715 +68%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $437 −$430 -98%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $2,245 −$2,223 -99%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 36.5 May 31 $1,649 −$1,631 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1,126 +$1,573 +140%
Jesper de Jong vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7,949 +$3,563 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $382 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $120 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $77 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $214 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $356 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $624 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $693 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 91¢ $817 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $775 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 64¢ $570 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $537 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 41¢ $443 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $696 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $330 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $333 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $283 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $116 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $91 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $99 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $169 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $536 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,110.17 · official $5,110.29 (match) · 2276 history records