Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd4c2…1e3a sports 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,034 (-3%) realized −$4,041 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%208W / 93L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$733est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$397
7 days−$415
14 days−$362
30 days−$3,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,581
other 7% +$723
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 60% -14.7%
≤30d 174 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 47% -14.4%
≤90d 301 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 48% -13.7%
all 301 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 48% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 24% -21.9%
15% -30.3% 12% -29.5%
20% -37.1% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$549) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$198 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$4,041
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses208 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$733
Open positions1
Markets (closed)301 / 302
History coverage40d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Vitality 79¢ 84¢ $142 $149 +$7 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $389 −$338 -87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $242 +$130 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $295 −$295 -100%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $250 +$44 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $233 +$12 +5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $212 +$20 +10%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $406 +$55 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $243 −$61 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $283 −$49 -17%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $83 +$38 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $298 +$29 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $215 +$84 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 +$55 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $149 +$36 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $175 +$33 +19%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $149 +$26 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $292 −$81 -28%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $61 +$17 +28%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $240 +$35 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $207 +$33 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$74 +77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $85 +$11 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $249 −$189 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $265 +$13 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $70 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 +$42 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $232 −$77 -33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $128 +$69 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$30 +29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $199 +$30 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $154 +$33 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $147 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$17 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $113 +$16 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $54 +$25 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $151 +$14 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $111 +$40 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $119 +$13 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$19 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $296 −$92 -31%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $36 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $109 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 66¢ $34 40m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 11¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $296 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 10¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $94 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $372 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $242 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 87¢ $295 6h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger SELL Andrej Nedic 100¢ $295 11h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Andrej Nedic 87¢ $200 13h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Andrej Nedic 73¢ $51 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $245 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $233 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $232 23h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 90¢ $212 24h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 100¢ $461 24h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 84¢ $182 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $182 25h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 89¢ $223 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 67¢ $223 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $260 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 22¢ $11 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 44¢ $22 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $243 26h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 89¢ $122 30h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $122 33h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 67¢ $83 34h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $327 35h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 90¢ $298 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.13 · official $149.13 (match) · 871 history records