Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4c2…29eb
other · 13 markets active 3h ago
2.5score
+$3,849 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,649 · open +$200
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,000
Realized+$3,649
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage323d
Avg bet$2,566
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit23%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6,800 $7,000 +$200 (+3%)
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 14¢ 0¢ $1,521 $0 −$1,521 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 9¢ 0¢ $1,539 $0 −$1,539 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? No 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? No 41¢ 0¢ $3,310 $0 −$3,310 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 28 $2,018 +$2,540 +126%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 27 $213 +$544 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 11 $8 −$8 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 10 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 10 $2,926 +$7,170 +245%
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? Dec 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 09 $10,790 +$63 +1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 01 $3,944 −$199 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 03 $3,310 −$3,310 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% +$7,178
crypto 10% −$3,327
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7,001 3h
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 10¢ $503 166d
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 9¢ $1,036 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 20¢ $149 167d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 19¢ $1,405 167d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 11¢ $330 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $406 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $1 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $226 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $3 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $0 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $4 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $5 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $3 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $2 168d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 32¢ $757 168d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $17 171d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 184d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $1 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $0 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $1 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $14 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $13 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 14¢ $280 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $217 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $16 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $31 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $2 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $18 185d
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 16¢ $3 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+125.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 +149.7% +125.9% 33% 25% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +125.9% 25% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +104.3% 25% -14.4%
15% +84.5% 25% -22.7%
20% +66.5% 25% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,000.00 · official $7,000.00 (match) · 120 history records