Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4c0…4ae4 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-9%) realized −$92 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$34
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$134
crypto 37% +$83
world 1% −$10
sports 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 33% -4.9%
≤30d 39 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 28% -12.3%
≤90d 39 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 28% -12.3%
all 39 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 28% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 28% -12.3%
10% -41.9% 21% -20.6%
15% -47.5% 21% -28.3%
20% -52.6% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage8d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $70 $55 −$15 (-22%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 53¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+147%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$31 +49%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$20 +388%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $80 +$9 +11%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 53m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.09 · official $312.91 (match) · 95 history records