Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd4c0…1002 sports 138 markets active 5h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,205 (+13%) realized +$2,262 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%60W / 68L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$101
14 days+$457
30 days+$1,895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$2,055
other 20% −$33
world 1% +$212
crypto 1% −$123
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +16.6% +5.5% 33% 32% -10.4%
≤30d 127 +16.2% +5.2% 46% 45% +0.9%
≤90d 128 +17.8% +6.6% 47% 45% +2.0%
all 128 +17.8% +6.6% 47% 45% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 45% +2.0%
10% -3.6% 41% -7.8%
15% -12.9% 35% -16.7%
20% -21.4% 30% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$72 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized+$2,262
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses60 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions6
Markets (closed)128 / 138
History coverage82d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 100¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$122 +596%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$208 +102%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $102 −$98 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +49%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$80 +157%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +21%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$90 +88%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$368 +717%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $201 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 10¢ $10 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 6¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $102 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $102 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $101 29h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 46h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 46h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 46h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 2¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.15 · official $431.90 · 277 history records