Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4bd…f916 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$11
other 27% +$1
finance 14% +$3
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 17% -6.9%
≤90d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 42% 17% -7.0%
all 29 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 7% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -7.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -16.4%
15% -25.7% 3% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.22 per $1 lost it wins $7.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $26 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $44 +$6 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $7 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $2 +$2 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Dec 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 26? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $54 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $32 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $4 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $10 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $37 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $48 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $48 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $44 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $44 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $4 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.62 · official $58.20 (match) · 97 history records