Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4bd…f040 crypto 158 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%51W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -15.4% -23.4% 28% 28% -21.0%
≤30d 158 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -10.2%
≤90d 158 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -10.2%
all 158 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 32% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 32% -18.8%
15% -28.8% 32% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses51 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records