Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd4b8…3a01 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%24W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% $0
world 36% $0
other 15% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 84% 0% -12.2%
all 27 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -11.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses24 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage101d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 31 $96 −$16 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 3? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 26? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 17? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 14? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 13? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $122 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $122 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $74 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 17d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 69d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 71d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $14 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $15 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 92d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records