Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd4b8…7bf1 crypto 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$406 (-2%) realized −$429 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate77%365W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$597
14 days−$536
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$363
other 12% −$194
world 10% +$26
politics 6% +$76
sports 4% −$44
tech 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -33.7% -40.0% 52% 22% -19.9%
≤30d 202 -11.1% -19.6% 73% 25% -13.0%
≤90d 473 -4.1% -13.3% 77% 33% -12.4%
all 473 -4.1% -13.3% 77% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 33% -12.4%
10% -21.6% 15% -20.8%
15% -29.1% 9% -28.4%
20% -36.1% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,824
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses365 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)473 / 507
History coverage71d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 82¢ 96¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $97 $109 +$12 (+13%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 85¢ $78 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 92¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 83¢ 78¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? No 88¢ 52¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $280 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $93 −$9 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 +$9 +3%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $207 +$4 +2%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $90 +$17 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $129 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $117 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $72 28m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 29m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $280 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 81¢ $136 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 4h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 9h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $22 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $309 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 27h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $211 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 29h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 29h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 38h
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 40h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 99¢ $72 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $101 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $108 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,823.73 · official $1,823.91 (match) · 1582 history records